5.07.2014

Koach Ein Sof




One of the signs of the end of days is supposed to be physical decline of  the nations. This probably includes a falling birthrate too. The abiility to procreate is referred to in chassidus (at least) as the power (Koach)  of Ein Sof, i.e. the one area where man can create life thus mimicking Hashem. The financial crisis in 2008 wiped out billions in wealth and millions of jobs. It also sent birth rates tumbling. Six years later they haven't bounced back. Economists say much of economic growth is due to more people joining the workforce each year than leaving it. Now this fuel of the economy  is running out. n the US, 75% of people surveyed said the main reason couples weren't having more children was a lack of money or fear of the economy. Growth in the working-age population has halted in developed countries. Even in France and the United Kingdom, with relatively healthy birth rates, growth in the labor pool has slowed dramatically. In Japan, Germany and Italy, it  is shrinking.

The drop in birth rates began in the 1960s, when many women entered the workforce Births did begin rising in many countries in the new millennium. But then the financial crisis struck. Many couples delayed having children or decided to have none at all.
Couples in the biggest developed economies - the United States, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom - had 350,000 fewer babies in 2012 than in 2008, a drop of nearly 5 percent. The United Nations forecasts that women in those countries will have an average 1.7 children in their lifetimes. The fertility rate needs to reach 2.1 just to replace people dying and keep populations constant.

The  U.S. economy will grow 3 percent  in each of the next three years, then slow to an average 2.3 percent for next eight years. The main reason: Not enough new workers.

In aging societies, the big fear is that paying for benefits for the swelling number of retirees will weigh on economic growth. 

Many economists think demographic headwinds are just too strong to expect a jump in growth. The best hope is an unexpected innovation leading to a burst of efficiency in the workplace. "Unless there is a technological miracle, demography alone points to 1 to 1.5 percent being the new normal," And 3 percent? That's "the new definition of boom times."


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